Overconfident Behavior in Informational Cascades: An Eye-Tracking Study

This paper investigates the validity of the Dual Process theory by using eye-tracking methods to trace the process of attention during a non-preference-based problem solving task, that is, informational cascades. In this setting, gaze direction may convey evidence on how automatic detection is modified or sustained by controlled search. We provide laboratory evidence that gaze direction is driven by cognitive biases, such as overconfidence. In particular, we find a significant statistical correlation between first fixations and subjects' actual choices. Our results suggest that attentional strategies are not necessarily consistent with efficient patterns of information collecting. © 2010 American Psychological Association.