Exchange rate pass-through in EMU acceding countries: Empirical analysis and policy implications

Countries that joined the European Union in 2004 have to decide when to adopt the Euro. This decision depends on the evaluation of the relative costs and benefits associated with giving up the exchange rate instrument. Recent empirical work on several new EU members has questioned the role of the exchange rate as a shock absorber, thus downplaying the potential costs in terms of macroeconomic stabilization. In this paper, we address the issue from a different perspective, emphasizing the role of pass-through from exchange rate to domestic inflation in new EU members. The focus is on four countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia – NM-4) that have adopted some form of floating or managed exchange rate regimes. The paper reports empirical results indicating high pass-through coefficients and links them to the degree of policy accommodation. High exchange rate pass-through in NM-4 indicates that stabilization of nominal exchange rates would lower inflationary pressures and help fulfill criteria to enter the EMU.