Moving beyond the Brexit vote

On the 23 June 2016 the UK voted in favour of Brexit, with the Leave campaign winning by 52% to 48%. In October 2016 the new Prime Minister, Theresa May, announced that she would trigger Article 50 (the legal notification to other EU members that the UK was leaving the bloc) no later than March 2017, which would imply a likely withdrawal by March 2019. The aim of this article is to describe the main aspects of the Brexit vote and alternative options for future EU-UK relations. A decision still has to be made on the UK exit bill, and acrimonious discussions over the EU budget are likely. A parallel process of negotiating new economic relations with the EU will also have to be set in motion, though this is likely to take many years so interim temporary arrangements will probably prove necessary. When the scale of the costs, the risk of splitting the United Kingdom and the impossibility maintaining most of the promises of the Leave group become more evident, Regrexit may become more widespread. The results of the referendum are only advisory, and ultimately Brexit should be decided by Parliament or by consulting the UK electorate again once the shape of future arrangements with the EU are more clear. In the meantime the outlook is for continuing uncertainty with still much to determine about the ultimate destination of EU-UK relations.