Developing a Predictive Score for Chronic Arthritis among a Cohort of Children with Musculoskeletal Complaints-The Chronic Arthritis Score Study

OBJECTIVE: To explore if features obtained from a carefully taken medical history can be predictors of the final diagnosis in children with musculoskeletal complaints. STUDY DESIGN: We collected detailed clinical information on 178 children referred to our Pediatric Immunology and Rheumatology Unit by their primary care pediatrician for musculoskeletal complaints; a univariate logistic analysis was performed to identify variables correlated with the diagnosis of chronic arthritis. The variables identified were combined in a linear score that indicates the probability for a patient with musculoskeletal pain to receive the diagnosis of chronic arthritis. RESULTS: The joint swelling pattern (P < .0001), the precipitating factors of pain (P = .001), the duration of morning stiffness (P < .0001) and the frequency of pain (P < .0001), were found to be independently correlated with the diagnosis of chronic arthritis and were used to develop a diagnostic score. This score had a sensitivity of 90.9% and specificity of 95.3%. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a score that could be useful in the daily clinical routine to correctly direct the differential diagnosis in a child with musculoskeletal complaints, rationalizing time and resources necessary to reach a definitive diagnosis.