The paper is concerned with the question of the impossibility of a theory of expected utility within the context of a frequentist theory of probability. In so doing I focus on John Venn's and Francis Y. Edgeworth's work. Both authors underline that the strong division between probability and theory of decision derives from the impossibility to apply cogently probability values to single events. According to the author, this question is exemplified in reference to St. Petersburg paradox. The results of the work suggest that the applicability of the theory of probability to choice under uncertainty depend by semantical characterization of probability. Finally the author maintain a possible interpretation of the historical development of the expected utility model that contrast with the consolidated view.

Baccini, A. (2001). Frequentist probability and choice under uncertainty. HISTORY OF POLITICAL ECONOMY, 33(4), 743-772 [10.1215/00182702-33-4-743].

Frequentist probability and choice under uncertainty

BACCINI, ALBERTO
2001

Abstract

The paper is concerned with the question of the impossibility of a theory of expected utility within the context of a frequentist theory of probability. In so doing I focus on John Venn's and Francis Y. Edgeworth's work. Both authors underline that the strong division between probability and theory of decision derives from the impossibility to apply cogently probability values to single events. According to the author, this question is exemplified in reference to St. Petersburg paradox. The results of the work suggest that the applicability of the theory of probability to choice under uncertainty depend by semantical characterization of probability. Finally the author maintain a possible interpretation of the historical development of the expected utility model that contrast with the consolidated view.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/11365/32921