Prediction of lymph node status by analysis of prognostic factors and possible indications for elective axillary dissection in T1 breast cancers

OBJECTIVE: To identify those patients with T1 breast cancers with lower risk of nodal metastases who can safely be spared axillary dissection. DESIGN: Retrospective study. SETTING: University hospital, Italy. SUBJECTS: Review of clinical records and histopathological slides of 547 patients with T1 breast cancer, operated on between 1984 and 1997. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence of axillary metastases in relation to age, menopausal status, diameter and grade of tumour, vascular invasion, DNA ploidy, S-phase fraction and hormone receptor state, by univariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS: Axillary metastases were present in 159 patients (29%). On univariate analysis, diameter of tumour 10 mm or less (pT1a/pT1b cancers), no vascular invasion, and grade 1 tumour were significantly correlated with a lower risk of nodal metastases, but only vascular invasion (p = 0.0001, odds ratio = 3.1) and diameter of tumour (p = 0.04, odds ratio = 1.6) were independent predictors on multivariate analysis. Among 34 pT1a/pT1b cancers, with low grade of tumour and no vascular invasion, only 2 (6%) had axillary metastases. When only one favourable predictive factor was associated with diameter of tumour of 10 mm or less, the incidence of axillary metastases ranged from 12% for 43 patients with grade 1 cancers to 13% for 76 patients with no vascular invasion. CONCLUSIONS: Axillary dissection may be avoided in pT1a and pT1b breast cancers (< or = 10 mm), with low grade of tumour or no vascular invasion. T1 breast cancers 10 mm or less in diameter should be treated by a two-step approach, first wide excision of the tumour and then axillary dissection or not depending on pathological examination of the primary tumour