Role of kinematically induced horizontal forces in Mediterranean tectonics: insights from numerical modelling

Finite element modeling of the central-eastern Mediterranean region has been carried out to show that the recent/present deformation pattern of this zone, inferred from neotectonic observations and seismic strain rates, may be satisfactorily reproduced as effect of the relative motion of Africa and eastern Anatolia with respect to Eurasia. Numerical modeling involved 2D elastic elements in a planestress approximation. The model is constituted by a mosaic of poorly deformable blocks separated by much more deformable decoupling zones, representing consuming boundaries, extensional zones and transcurrent discontinuities, whose location and geometry have been deduced by neotectonic, morphological and seismological information. The calculated displacement field obtained with the modeling parametrization which allows to match the observed strain regimes is compatible with geodetic observations in the study area, but for the Hellenic Arc, where geodetic velocities are higher than those predicted by modeling. This discrepancy could be considerably reduced by adopting a higher deformability of the model in the Hellenic trench, but this condition would contrast with the Plio-Quaternary deformation pattern of the southern Aegean zone, which suggest a considerable slowdown of western Crete since the late Pliocene. Furthermore, geodetic velocities are considerably higher than the motion rates derived by moment tensor analysis in the Hellenic trench and in the internal Aegean area and cannot easily account for the low Quaternary deformation observed in the southern Aegean zone. The above discrepancy could be due to a difference between the 'instantaneous' kinematic behavior of the Aegean zone, indicated by geodetic measurements, and the average behavior over longer time intervals, inferred from geological and seismological strain indicators. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.