Structural Breaks, Convergence Clubs and Tourism Specialization: A Multi-Scale Analysis for Spain

This paper investigates the role of tourism specialization –proxied by the share of employment in tourism-related activities– in shaping regional economic convergence dynamics in Spain. Using data for NUTS-2 and NUTS-3 regions over the period 2003–2023, we combine structural break detection (Bai–Perron), the Phillips and Sul convergence club methodology, and contingency table analysis to assess the relationship between economic performance and tourism specialization. First, the results reveal the presence of persistent structural heterogeneity in both regional development dynamics and sectoral structures. Second, no robust association is found between tourism specialization and economic convergence patterns, calling into question the idea that promoting this activity—similarly to other sectors—can act as a generalizable engine of regional convergence. Overall, the findings highlight the structural complexity of the territorial system and the critical role of spatial scale, showing significant differences between regional (NUTS-2) and provincial (NUTS-3) levels. These results suggest the need for cross-cutting policy approaches that go beyond sectoral specialization to foster convergence processes.