Parliamentary size reduction and candidate selection: evidence from Italy

Scientific literature has long emphasised parliamentary size as a fundamental feature of democratic systems, shaping both party dynamics and representation. However, the consequences of reducing the number of Members of Parliament (MPs) on party strategies for candidate selection remain underexplored. This study examines the case of Italy’s 2019 parliamentary downsizing to investigate how parties adapted their candidate placement strategies, with particular attention to incumbents and female candidates. Leveraging data from pre- and post-reform elections and applying an original measure of candidate list position relevance, the analysis reveals that parties were more likely to allocate incumbents to electorally advantageous positions after the reduction. By contrast, the reform had limited direct effects on the placement of female candidates – likely due to existing gender parity regulations that already structured party behaviour. At the same time, the interaction between gender and incumbency, while not reaching conventional levels of statistical significance, points to a suggestive pattern whereby female incumbents appear less advantaged than their male counterparts.