Unbalanced impacts of nature and nurture factors on the phenology, area and intensity of algal blooms in global large lakes: MODIS observations

Under the influence of climate warming and human activities, many large lakes have experienced an increase in eutrophication and algal blooms. Although these trends have been identified using low temporal resolution (~16 days) satellites such as those of the Landsat missions, the opportunity to compare high-frequency spatiotemporal variations of algal bloom characteristics between lakes has not been explored. In the present study, we explore daily satellite observations by developing a universal, practical, and robust algorithm to identify the spatiotemporal distribution of algal bloom dynamics in large lakes (>500 km2) across the globe. Data from 161 lakes, taken from 2000 to 2020 showed an average accuracy of 79.9 %. Algal blooms were detected in 44 % of all lakes, with a higher incidence in temperate lakes (67 % of all temperate lakes), followed by tropical lakes (59 %) compared to lakes in arid climates (23 %). We found positive trends in bloom area and frequency (p < 0.05), as well as an earlier bloom time (p < 0.05). Climate factors were found to be linked to changes in annual initial bloom time (44 %); while an increase in human activities was associated to bloom duration (49 %), area (max percent: 53 %, mean percent: 45 %), and frequency (46 %). The study shows the evolution of daily algal blooms and their phenology in global large lakes for the first time. Such information enhances our understanding of algal bloom dynamics and their drivers, with important considerations to improve the management of large lake ecosystems.