Searching priorities for a species at the brink of extinction: Threats analysis on the critically endangered Nubian Flapshell Turtle (Cyclanorbis elegans)

The Critically Endangered Nubian Flapshell Turtle (Cyclanorbis elegans) is found in the White Nile River system in South Sudan and northern Uganda. Over the past few decades, its populations have sharply declined, primarily due to human-induced threats, leading to its near-extinction across almost its entire range. In this paper, we present the results of a comprehensive threat analysis undertaken to pinpoint the challenges confronting the species within its natural habitat, specifically in the only known sites where it currently exists. We aimed to develop a conceptual framework to understand causal relationships among driving forces, threats and the target species. This framework allows the visualisation and analysis of the web of intricate interactions that contribute to the species' decline and vulnerability. We convened a panel of experts who identified three primary direct threats to the Nubian Flapshell Turtle: (1) Sand mining (IUCN code 3.2); (2) Overfishing by native fishers and refugees (code 5.4) and (3) Habitat loss at nesting sites (code 7.3). Among these threats, overfishing had the largest geographical extension, the highest intensity and duration, while habitat loss occurred at the highest frequency. These threats varied significantly in intensity and frequency. Additionally, when assessing the overall magnitude of these threats, habitat loss and overfishing had the highest impact, with significantly higher scores compared to sand mining. Our experts also identified the underlying driving forces behind these threats: (1) Economic interests driving sand mining activities along the Nile; (2) The influence of civil conflict and refugee populations, which contribute to the demand for bushmeat; (3) the Chinese expatriates, that lead to overfishing; (4) The removal of bank vegetation serves as a catalyst for habitat loss at nesting sites. The resulting conceptual framework serves as a valuable tool for defining targeted conservation measures for each distinct threat.