Evaluation of the exposure of the Mediterranean biodiversity to marine litter: the ASI – plastic busters MPAs projects connection

A number of marine species in the Mediterranean are threatened by the presence of several pressure factors, which include climate change, collisions with vessels, entanglement and ingestion of marine litter, especially plastic. Risk reduction policies can only be conceived starting from an accurate analysis of the exposure to such pressure factors. To estimate spatial abundance of both marine species and plastic litter and to assess the exposure risk, a two-stage analysis approach was applied, using aerial survey data from the ACCOBAMS Survey Initiative (ASI), in synergy with the Plastic Busters MPAs (PB MPAs) project. First, a detection function was fitted to observation data to obtain detection probabilities for individuals, then a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was employed to estimate the spatial distribution of relative abundance, based on survey observations. A bivariate Local Indicator of Spatial Association (LISA) was then applied to the maps of relative abundance to derive risk maps of exposure of marine species to marine litter. The maps, obtained with a spatial resolution of about 10 km, allow us to identify areas with the highest neighboring abundance of taxa and marine litter, in particular for the MPAs studied by the PB MPAs project, which include the North-Western Mediterranean (Pelagos Sanctuary and Tuscan Archipelago), the Ionian and Aegean Sea (Zakynthos), and the Strait of Sicily (Cabrera Archipelago).