Benford's law defines a probability distribution for patterns of significant digits in real numbers. When the law is expected to hold for genuine observations, deviation from it can be taken as evidence of possible data manipulation. We derive results on a transform of the significand function that provide motivation for new tests of conformance to Benford's law exploiting its sum-invariance characterization. We also study the connection between sum invariance of the first digit and the corresponding marginal probability distribution. We approximate the exact distribution of the new test statistics through a computationally efficient Monte Carlo algorithm. We investigate the power of our tests under different alternatives and we point out relevant situations in which they are clearly preferable to the available procedures. Finally, we show the application potential of our approach in the context of fraud detection in international trade.

Barabesi, L., Cerasa, A., Cerioli, A., Perrotta, D. (2022). On characterizations and tests of Benford’s law. JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION, 117(540), 1887-1903 [10.1080/01621459.2021.1891927].

On characterizations and tests of Benford’s law

Lucio Barabesi;
2022-01-01

Abstract

Benford's law defines a probability distribution for patterns of significant digits in real numbers. When the law is expected to hold for genuine observations, deviation from it can be taken as evidence of possible data manipulation. We derive results on a transform of the significand function that provide motivation for new tests of conformance to Benford's law exploiting its sum-invariance characterization. We also study the connection between sum invariance of the first digit and the corresponding marginal probability distribution. We approximate the exact distribution of the new test statistics through a computationally efficient Monte Carlo algorithm. We investigate the power of our tests under different alternatives and we point out relevant situations in which they are clearly preferable to the available procedures. Finally, we show the application potential of our approach in the context of fraud detection in international trade.
2022
Barabesi, L., Cerasa, A., Cerioli, A., Perrotta, D. (2022). On characterizations and tests of Benford’s law. JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION, 117(540), 1887-1903 [10.1080/01621459.2021.1891927].
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
On Characterizations and Tests of Benford s Law.pdf

accesso aperto

Tipologia: PDF editoriale
Licenza: Creative commons
Dimensione 2.3 MB
Formato Adobe PDF
2.3 MB Adobe PDF Visualizza/Apri
uasa_a_1891927_sm2530.pdf

accesso aperto

Tipologia: Altro materiale allegato
Licenza: Creative commons
Dimensione 208.34 kB
Formato Adobe PDF
208.34 kB Adobe PDF Visualizza/Apri

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11365/1224895