This paper considers the issue of aggregation of experts' opinions expressed through not necessarily independent and even conflicting probability distributions or multiple priors. The paper addresses the elicitation of the consensus distribution by introducing the Steiner point of the set of all common distributions among experts and derives its conditional probabilities on future events.
Basili, M., Chateauneuf, A. (2020). Aggregation of experts' opinions and conditional consensus opinion by the Steiner point. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPROXIMATE REASONING, 123, 17-25 [10.1016/j.ijar.2020.04.005].
Aggregation of experts' opinions and conditional consensus opinion by the Steiner point
Marcello Basili
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2020-01-01
Abstract
This paper considers the issue of aggregation of experts' opinions expressed through not necessarily independent and even conflicting probability distributions or multiple priors. The paper addresses the elicitation of the consensus distribution by introducing the Steiner point of the set of all common distributions among experts and derives its conditional probabilities on future events.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento:
https://hdl.handle.net/11365/1110192