The Pantanal wetland (Mato Grosso, Brazil), located south of the Arnazon region, experienced dramatic land cover changes after the sixties. In this paper a predictive model of deforestation process in a region of the Pantanal (about 120,000 sqkm), based on estimation of forest c1earing occurred in the last thirty years, is described. The estimate of land cover changes was obtained by performing a multitemporal analysis of data from both topographic maps referred to years 1964-1966 and satellite images of the years 1985 and 1996. Vectorisation of topographic maps allowed to build the DEM and to create the land cover geodatabase for the years 1964-1966. By supervised c1assificationlphotointerpretation of Landsat5 TM images and fieldwork checks, the land cover geodatabase for the dry season of years 1985 and 1996 was created. The European CORINE Land Cover project nomenc1ature was tested and utilized. Then by topologic intersection among the databases, changes occurred in the time spans 1966-1985-1996 were obtained. The study area was split into physiographic provinces and for each province the deforestation trend was calculated. Assuming forest clearing would continue after 1996 with the same rate, by extrapolation of the forest clearing trend to the years 2001 and 2010, the extent of natural areas which could undergo clearing after 1996 were estimated. Afterward, in order to predict location of such areas, it was assumed deforestation would occur only in those areas characterized by specific conditions (i.e. threshold slope steepness, distance from watercourses, age of deforestation of neighboring areas). Taking into account alI the above described conditions, the c1usters of forest to be c1eared until reaching the estimated extent per physiographic province, were identified through an iterative process of proximity analysis. Future land cover scenarios for both the years 2001 and 2010 were built. Finally, the accuracy of the predictive results was assessed is some pilot areas by utilizing Landsat7 ETM+ images of the year 2001.

Salvini, R., Disperati, L., Carmignani, L. (2002). Deforestation assessment and predictive modelling in the Pantanal wetlands (Mato Grosso, Brazil). In Annual Conference of the International Association for Mathematical Geology, IAMG 2002 (pp.553-558).

Deforestation assessment and predictive modelling in the Pantanal wetlands (Mato Grosso, Brazil)

SALVINI, RICCARDO;DISPERATI, LEONARDO;CARMIGNANI, LUIGI
2002-01-01

Abstract

The Pantanal wetland (Mato Grosso, Brazil), located south of the Arnazon region, experienced dramatic land cover changes after the sixties. In this paper a predictive model of deforestation process in a region of the Pantanal (about 120,000 sqkm), based on estimation of forest c1earing occurred in the last thirty years, is described. The estimate of land cover changes was obtained by performing a multitemporal analysis of data from both topographic maps referred to years 1964-1966 and satellite images of the years 1985 and 1996. Vectorisation of topographic maps allowed to build the DEM and to create the land cover geodatabase for the years 1964-1966. By supervised c1assificationlphotointerpretation of Landsat5 TM images and fieldwork checks, the land cover geodatabase for the dry season of years 1985 and 1996 was created. The European CORINE Land Cover project nomenc1ature was tested and utilized. Then by topologic intersection among the databases, changes occurred in the time spans 1966-1985-1996 were obtained. The study area was split into physiographic provinces and for each province the deforestation trend was calculated. Assuming forest clearing would continue after 1996 with the same rate, by extrapolation of the forest clearing trend to the years 2001 and 2010, the extent of natural areas which could undergo clearing after 1996 were estimated. Afterward, in order to predict location of such areas, it was assumed deforestation would occur only in those areas characterized by specific conditions (i.e. threshold slope steepness, distance from watercourses, age of deforestation of neighboring areas). Taking into account alI the above described conditions, the c1usters of forest to be c1eared until reaching the estimated extent per physiographic province, were identified through an iterative process of proximity analysis. Future land cover scenarios for both the years 2001 and 2010 were built. Finally, the accuracy of the predictive results was assessed is some pilot areas by utilizing Landsat7 ETM+ images of the year 2001.
2002
Salvini, R., Disperati, L., Carmignani, L. (2002). Deforestation assessment and predictive modelling in the Pantanal wetlands (Mato Grosso, Brazil). In Annual Conference of the International Association for Mathematical Geology, IAMG 2002 (pp.553-558).
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11365/43666
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