The paper defines a consensus distribution with respect to experts' opinions using a multiple quantile utility model. We show that the Steiner Point (R. Schneider, Isr J Math 2: 241-249, 1971) is the representative consensus probability. The new rule for aggregation of experts' opinions, which can be simply evaluated by the Shapley value, is prudential and coherent.
Basili, M., Chateauneuf, A. (2016). Aggregation of Coherent Experts' Opinions: A Tractable Extreme-Outcomes Consistent Rule. In G. Rogova, P. Scott (a cura di), Fusion Methodologies in Crisis Management (pp. 423-433). New York : Springer [10.1007/978-3-319-22527-2].
Aggregation of Coherent Experts' Opinions: A Tractable Extreme-Outcomes Consistent Rule
BASILI, MARCELLO;
2016-01-01
Abstract
The paper defines a consensus distribution with respect to experts' opinions using a multiple quantile utility model. We show that the Steiner Point (R. Schneider, Isr J Math 2: 241-249, 1971) is the representative consensus probability. The new rule for aggregation of experts' opinions, which can be simply evaluated by the Shapley value, is prudential and coherent.
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https://hdl.handle.net/11365/998706