Maritime coercion and gray zone conflicts

The purpose of this chapter is to provide a broad introduction to issues related to the so-called gray zone conflicts, usually described as the space between peace and war. This is a (relatively) new and increasingly relevant form of warfare in which actors seek to achieve their security objectives, or gain strategic advantage, without resorting to direct use of military force, but by engaging in covert or illegal activities that are below the threshold of armed organised violence and do not escalate into war. While such conflicts take place in every domain (land, sea, air, space, cyberspace), the chapter considers only the maritime domain, where, according to the lesson of sea power theorists, the game for regional and world hegemony is being played more and more evidently. After reviewing some cases of gray zone coercion concerning other crucial quadrants of maritime geopolitics, the chapter focuses on the Indo-Pacific region, and especially the South China Sea (SCS) and East China Sea (ECS), where Beijing has long been employing gray zone coercion tactics and strategies in order to gradually change the regional (but also global) status quo in its favour without triggering military conflict or eliciting an anti-Chinese backlash. Some brief considerations on how to develop a coherent and effective strategy to coping with the main gray zone challenges in the maritime domain, particularly that of Southeast Asia, complete the chapter.