Invecchiamento della popolazione e questione pensionistica. Considerazioni di lungo periodo

The paper begins with a brief examination of the ageing process at the global and national level. Italy will not suffer of a labour supply shortage in the short run (rather, it is labour demand to be scarce). In the long run, however, labour supply will shrink in spite of an expected increasing labour market participation, a moderate increase in fertility and a significant immigration. The old age dependency ratios dramatically rise, but the "total dependency ratio" increases much less. The inspection of the main pension reforms shows the difficulty of the substitution of pay-as-you-go schemes with fully funded plans, and the contradiction brought about by the notional contribution schemes between financial and social sustainability. More equity in income distribution would support the solidarity component of public pension schemes.