Tentative recognition of the Italian seismic zones most prone to next strong earthquakes (as a tool for reduction of seismic risk)

A large portion of the building heritage in Italy has not been realized to resist the seismic shaking caused by earthquakes occurred in the past. Thus, the limited economic resources now available are largely insufficient to obtain a significant reduction of the seismic risk throughout the whole country. A way to achieve such objective might be identified by exploiting the fact that most probably in the next tens of years only few Italian zones will be hit by strong earthquakes and that, consequently, for such period the restoration of weak buildings and critical infrastructures will be urgent only in a very limited portion of the national territory. Thus, if the present scientific knowledge allowed us to reliably identify the location of the next major shocks, a significant reduction of the of seismic risk in Italy could become economically and operationally feasible. The hope of realizing such very attractive possibility should strongly increase the attention of Civil Protection authorities towards the researches that may provide the information cited above. As a first contribution towards that objective, this report describes a procedure that might allow the recognition of the Italian zone most prone to the next strong earthquake.